Oil rebounds, gold gains ground

OPEC+ speculation drives oil market volatility

Oil prices are bouncing back as OPEC+ members continue to reject reports of an output hike at the next meeting. An announcement from the G7 around the Russian oil price cap is due any day now and could complicate the group’s mission to balance supply and demand in the market, especially if the Kremlin responds by slashing exports to participating countries, as they’ve threatened.

That Russia is a key member of the alliance seriously complicates matters. I do wonder whether members could consider reconfiguring output targets, rather than boosting them, in order to account for lost Russian crude. Of course, that would likely require the backing of Russia which may not be forthcoming.

Oil prices will likely remain highly volatile over the next couple of weeks against this backdrop, with the EU embargo and potential price cap scheduled to start the day after the OPEC+ meeting on 4 December. If the cap agreement goes to the wire, OPEC+ may opt to delay the meeting given the uncertainty it would generate.

Gold rebounds off the prior resistance level

The slight recovery in risk appetite today is coinciding with a pullback in the US dollar and a rebound in gold. The yellow metal has held onto the bulk of November’s gains over the last week, seeing support around $1,730 on Monday where it met firm resistance on multiple occasions in September and October.

The key level to the upside remains $1,780 where it peaked around last week and saw substantial support around in the first half of the year.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

Read More: Oil rebounds, gold gains ground

2022-11-22 16:20:23

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